The newsletter is sent around 3 p.m. every day. I try to write five letters a week (Mon-Friday). My focus is on researching signals that have a statistically significant probability of providing superior risk-adjusted returns. I also share my views on the news of the day with some actionable insights.
I consider many charts and models from 3rd party researchers and strategists, but my philosophy in this newsletter is to only share the charts, tables, and models that I feature on the research portal. The reason I do this is because I believe it is vitally important that you become familiar with the tools you use to make your decisions. There is a temptation to be influenced by a chart that you have never seen before and are likely to never see again. This creates too much randomness in your process, so I will only share what we have available for users to reference at any time. I have also chosen to keep the bulk of my commentary in the newsletter on macro themes, while the research portal encompasses a far wider and deeper look at most asset classes. My reason is that there is a limited amount of time and space in a daily newsletter. I also want to give you the biggest bang for your buck with your limited time. It doesn’t matter how accurate your call on an individual asset is; if the broader asset class has a differing view, you may win the battle but lose the war.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I have not considered your individual circumstances. I propose actionable insights from a hypothetical general global macro strategists point of view, trying to achieve above-average risk-adjusted returns whilst considering the major macro themes currently in play. I am not licenced to provide individualised financial advice; therefore, any investment decision you make is solely your responsibility.
#60 S2N: Back in the Game
A closer look at the GameStop bear squeeze. A look at the cumulative advanced declines lines showing broad based momentum, with the SP500 likely to make a new high.
PPI came out higher than expected month on month but year on year remains below average. Australia presents a surplus budget and has a government debt to GDP ratio the envy of the US and Japan. Japanese yields are making
#59 S2N: Meme is Back – Meow
I spotlight the retail thrill seekers are back with trading volume at Robinhood at record levels. I share that @roaringkitty is back stoking the fuel at GameStop. I highlight again that VVIX and VIX are too low as is US Corporate Bond spreads.. Setting up a cool trade opportunity I wish to research further. I also share a chart of cocoa having dropped 27% in a day.
#58 S2N: Meet 2 Legends
I discuss 2 legends. Jim Simons the greatest trader ever who just passed away. I then discuss Peter Brandt a living legend who just joined S2N mailing list.
I show the 200 day moving average as a chart and also its backtest. I raise the alarm on the low VVIX. and finally I make a call on going long the Hang Seng and short the SP500.
#57 S2N: Markets don’t crash from overbought conditions, they crash from oversold conditions!
A look at performance before and after the last hike date of a Fed raising cycle.
52 week cumulative high-low index still pointing slightly up. The Hang Seng ends a 10 day up streak.
#56 S2N: A look at before and after the last hike
A look at performance before and after the last hike date of a Fed raising cycle.
52 week cumulative high-low index still pointing slightly up. The Hang Seng ends a 10 day up streak.
#55 S2N: A fresh look at inflation
A look at inflation is it really so bad. I mention crude oil and the potential break of an uptrend in place since April 2020.
#54 S2N: What does QT (quantitative tightening) look like?
A look at the Fed’s QT and its net liquidity correlation with the SP500. I also highlight the 20% drop in Cocoa and the closing of our short position.
#53 S2N: Starbucks drops a double shot
We start with a look at Starbucks selloff post weak results. Then mention KKR terrific track record. I mention CoreWeave a new hot AI startup and Super Micro Computer. I share a table with central banks gold reserves. I mention the dislocation within the Bitcoin ETF trust space. Trump Media gets a mention and the Yen including Julian Robertson’s $2 billion loss.
#52 S2N: Is Tesla going bankrupt?
We look at the prospects of Tesla going bankrupt by reviewing their performance. We take a look at the current Shiller PE and see that the market is overvalued at 34.4 in its 97th percentile of valuations. We also look at the SP500 and Nasdaq with their 50 day moving averages. We also look at their respective 52 week lows.